The crisis has begun.  The price of gasoline is already over $4.00 a gallon and it is sure to quickly rise.   Unfortunately, it does not appear that the region in which I live has any type of coordinated plan to address a catastrophic energy crisis at the local, regional, or national level.  

I have set up a Yahoo group in the hope of getting likeminded concerned citizens to discuss the value of a regional planning document that can be used to coordinate an effective response to the emerging oil crisis.   

The group is called SF Bay Area Without Oil. 

The homepage is http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sfbayareawithoutoil  and the email is sfbayareawithoutoil@yahoogroups.com 

All are welcomed to join, although residents of the SF Bay Area region are particularly encouraged to sign up.

I just set this group page up and it currently lacks content.  To be honest, I am not quite sure where to start.  I thought it might make sense, however, to start some kind of website to serve as a clearinghouse for local thinking about this issue.   Feel free to join up, if you are interested.

-Stax

Some helpful information from totalbike.com ...

Spring Bicycle Tune-Up

Spring is in the air, the birds are singing, and finally daylight saving time is here! Some of us have been dedicated cyclists throughout the winter while others have just hung up our bikes through the cold wet months. Either way, now that it is warming up outside it is time to get your ride ready for spring.

Most of these checks can be done by a novice. If you do not have time or energy to go through the full bike inspection of your bike checkout the pre-ride checklist for the basics. If you see a problem take your bike to your local bike shop and let them checkout your bike. A basic tune-up costs between $30-50, a good value if you do not like getting your fingers dirty. All others should go through the following bike inspection. There can be a great sense of satisfaction that comes from maintaining your own bike. We will cover many of these sections in depth in future issues.

Cleaning -- It is important to start with a clean bike. Keeping your bike clean will extend the life of your components. As you clean the bike take the time to inspect everything. Look for cracks or other signs of wear that could cause future breakdowns or part failures. Clean the chain, chainrings, cassette, derailleurs, etc. with a biodegradable cleaner. Simple green works great for this. Use an old tooth brush and clean everything. Use as little water as possible. Clean the pedals, the brakes, tires, rims, and the frame. Remove the seatpost from the frame and wipe off any dirt. Wipe the inside of the frame where the seatpost slides into. Apply a very small amount of good grease to the post and reinstall.

Brake System Check the brake pads. Unfasten the brake cable and look at the brake pads closely. The pads should be wearing evenly. If you have a ridge in the pads then your brakes may need to be adjusted. If the pads are worn or not smooth then get some new pads. Old brake pads tend to harden and If the pads are ok then reconnect the straddle cable and squeeze the brakes. Do the pads strike the rim at the same time? You can adjust the brake arm tension screw that is usually on one of the brake arms so the brakes are even.

Wheels Clean the rims with a cloth and rubbing alcohol, beer won't work! Check the rim for pits or grooves in the sidewall of the rim. Spin the wheels. Do they go around straight or do they wobble? You can make minor adjustments to the wheel with a spoke wrench. For major tweaking take it to a shop or use a truing stand and get it back in true.

Drivetrain -- Elevate the rear wheel and spin the pedals. This is where a stand comes in handy. Shift through all the rear gears. Shifting from gear to gear should be smooth. If it skips try adjusting your rear derailleur. If this fails to correct the problem your chain, cogset, and chainrings may be worn. The chain is the first to go. Chains last from 6 months to a year. A good chain only costs $15-40 and is well worth the investment. Examine your chain closely for side slop and stretch which are signs that your chain is wearing out. If your chain is worn it can prematurely wear on your cogs and rings. In the front try shifting the derailleur. Adjust your front derailleur if needed. Check the front chainrings for excessive wear or missing teeth. Small chainrings wear out much faster your larger ones. If all is well your bike will now shift perfect. Apply some fresh lube of your preference.

Tires -- If the brake pads were out of alignment they may have damaged the tires. Check tires for splits, cracks, or tears in the sidewall. Check the tread of the tire for worn knobs, uneven tread wear, or excessive wear. Replace the tires if needed. There is nothing worse than having a tire blow out because it needed to be replaced.

Cables If you ride all year round you should replace your brake and/or derailleur housing once per year. If you keep your bike clean you can use the same housing for many years. For all other then once every 2-5 years is fine. Dirty or rusty cables will diminish shifting performance. You can purchase bulk housing and install it yourself if you have some quality cable cutters. The cable ferules can be reused. Install the new housing and adjust the brakes and derailleurs. Fresh cables make shifting and braking smooth.

Lube -- Apply lubrication to the chain. It should be applied so there is an even coat on the inside and outside of each link and between the pins and rollers. Leave it one for a few minutes, then wipe off the excess lube with a rag. A few drops should be added to the cables at the nipple end. Gore-Tex and other Teflon cables should never be lubricated. All the pivot points on the front and rear derailleur should be oiled. Apply a few drops to the brake lever pivots and to the exposed brake cable.

Is everything tight? Check all nuts and bolts on the bike. Do not over-tighten any of the quick releases or bolts. For Shimano torque specifications click here. Congratulations if you made it through and completed your spring tune-up.

http://www.totalbike.com/service/spring.html

FREEWAY COLLAPSE

With this morning's freeway collapse in the East Bay, hundreds of thousands of commutes are now a whole lot longer. I think I am going to see a lot of new faces on the BART train tomorrow morning.   An April 30 to remember.

THE SCO

Lately I have been reading up on the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) an intergovernmental organization which was founded on June 14, 2001 by the leaders of the People's Republic of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.   It's sort of an Eastern counter to NATO, although not with a declared military purpose.  On October 26, 2005, at the Moscow Summit of the SCO, the Secretary General of the Organization said that the SCO will prioritize joint energy projects, including oil development.  More ominously, at the same summit, Pakistan, India, and Iran were granted observer status at the SCO, a move many analysts believe is a precursor to full membership.  Simon Sweeney, director of the International Studies Programme of York St. John University College in the United Kingdom, has since described the SCO as "OPEC with nuclear weapons."    Some argue that Russia, which produces 9 million barrels of oil per day and has a population of only 130 million, would be the clear global winner in the event of a worldwide oil crisis and, with the support of the SCO, could dominate the west in a new energy cold war.    I am not sure what to make of this stuff, but I am going to keep up the research.

Oil shock?  Bring it on.

That is exactly the kind of sociopolitical enema my apathetic, debt-laden country needs.    I only hope the crisis will be as severe as the internet chatter would have us believe.    I am talking about the kind of reality check that only widespread economic ruin can assure.   Will it get ugly?  No doubt.  I can't help but feel it is necessary, however.   You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, as they say. 

I am cautiously optimistic that concerned citizens will pull together to force the kind of policy change at all levels of government that long-term sustainability will require, but I am equally skeptical we can be that cooperative.  Even the die-hard political activists cannot be counted on to set aside their agendas for the common good.  Show me one hippie's Ecotopian wind turbine and I will show you another hippie's Swainson's hawk killing machine. 

I know it all sounds pathetically jaded, but how else should any reasonable person react?  The economic injustice that shames this country was laid bare in New Orleans and Katrina is now little more than a fading nightmare in the average American conscience.   Do you really think that the necessary change will be sparked by Anderson Coopers' live broadcasts from the gas station?   Of course not.  It will require pain.  Plain and simple.

I will help, however.  To the extent I can.  I must admit that I am not yet sure what my contribution will be.  I do know, however, that I have little interest in rehabilitating April 29, 2007.

Save the country?  No thanks.  Change the country?  Where do I sign up?  

A solar VW bus. This could come in handy.

Anarchy to be unleashed in Nigeria?

Federal Government: Nnamani, others, planning anarchy

Stories by Our Reporters - 22.04.2007

THE Federal government on Saturday alleged that an unnamed presidential candidate was plotting to unleash mayhem and anarchy in the country with a view to discrediting the result of Saturday's federal elections.

Special Assistant to the President, Mallam Uba Sani who raised the alarm said the presidential candidate was using the lure of money, to unleash violence throughout Nigeria from Saturday as a way of discrediting the elections.

He also linked the aborted attempt to bomb the national headquarters of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to the wider plot.

Mallam Sani specifically pointed to the Senate President, Chief Ken Nnamani as a “willing ally” to the plot, insisting that the senate president would be used to get the National Assembly to declare an interim national government once there was anarchy and the result of the election was discredited.

The federal government equally alleged that some groups have been recruited throughout the country “to start killing, maiming Nigerians and burning property to stop the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from releasing the results of the election.”

In response, Mallam Sani said, the Federal Government has placed security agencies on “red alert” to foil the plot and save the country’s democracy.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Have the Troubles Begun?

By Tom Whipple

Thursday, 19 April 2007

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1154&Itemid=33 In recent years, numerous books have been written about life after world oil production peaks. Most depict radical change, as oil-powered transportation, suburban living, and large-scale food production and distribution wither. The truth is nobody really has a good idea about what is going to happen. The world has never been to peak oil before. There are many complicating factors -- rates of oil depletion and production, the state of the world’s economy, and the gap between rich and poor nations to name a few. Making a meaningful projection of what life will be like five, ten, or 20 years from now is, as usual, fraught with uncertainties. The one thing everybody agrees on is that all sorts of “bad” things are bound to happen as we transition from plentiful oil to scarcity. For the sake of a better term, let’s call these bad things “the troubles.” For each of us the troubles will begin differently. If you had spent the last 30 years building Fords and your factory closed recently, you know just when the troubles began. If you are one of the tens of millions in the underdeveloped world that are already suffering from power outages and planned power cuts (euphemistically termed “load-shedding”), then you too have already experienced the first of the troubles. For most of us in the developed world however, nothing much has happened, as yet, that unambiguously marks the beginning of troubled times. For the last two years, we have seen gasoline prices spike to over $3 a gallon, but these were caused by transitory events and gasoline soon settled to what has become “acceptable levels.” We are now approaching a national average of $3 a gallon again, only this time it is happening in April with only the normal level price-inflating geopolitical threats out there and the hurricanes, if they come, are still four months away. This time the problem seems to be more systemic and is based on the fact that we here in America simply can’t quite produce or import enough gasoline to keep up with even late winter, much less summer, demand. For the last couple of months, gasoline stockpiles have been dropping at unprecedented rates. If gasoline stockpile depletion continues much longer, could it be the unmistakable beginning of mass troubles for everyone? Now, our current gasoline problems could go away in the next few weeks. Our refineries could recover from fires and other unplanned outages and start producing all the gasoline we need for a while. Our imports of gasoline could increase. We could even cut back on driving a bit or stop diluting our gasoline with mileage-robbing ethanol. Before you know it supply and demand would be back in balance and we could all have a great 4th of July. However, it is looking doubtful that all the ingredients necessary to a normal summer driving season are going to come together this year. As we are becoming more accustomed to $3 gasoline, most observers believe it is going to take a substantial jump in prices to somewhere north of $5 a gallon before gasoline consumption slows substantially. While US refinery utilization is now back up above 90 percent of capacity, a question remains as to how much longer the US can import sufficient quantities of finished gasoline and the proper grades of crude that enable our refineries to produce the optimum amount of gasoline in their current configuration. Two weeks ago, as a number of observers pointed out, refinery utilization increased while gasoline production dropped. This may be a one-time glitch, or it could mean that sufficient quantities of light, sweet crude, that are optimal for making gasoline, are becoming difficult to find. If this is indeed the case, then the US has a problem of major proportions. Last week US gasoline inventories dropped for the 10th straight week by another 2.7 million barrels. While this is better than the previous two weeks when stockpiles dropped by over 5 million barrels a week, it should be noted that refinery utilization is getting back close to normal. Gasoline stockpiles, however, are dropping due to increased consumption (still running 2.5 percent over last year) and insufficient imports. As an EIA spokesman said last week, “It’s too early to panic. There is still plenty of time to rebuild inventories.” Let’s hope so, for unless those imports start picking up soon, it’s going to be a long and perhaps troubled summer.

Oil production is declining

By Faisal Darem Apr 21, 2007, 18:09

The production of oil is declining from day to day, said Khalid Mahfoud Bahah, Minster of Oil and Minerals, during his visit to Canadian Nexen Petroleum Blocks 14 and 51 last Thursday. In meetings with Canadian Nexen officials, Bahah spoke about his disappointment about the production of oil. “I was not lucky when I became Minster of Oil, because since that time, the production has gone down.

I know that the biggest problem we are facing is that production is declining.” The meetings were attended by Ahmed Dares Assistant Deputy of Oil and Minerals, Mohammed al-Mutawakel, general manager of Yemeniztion, Alistair Mooney, President and General Manager of Canadian Nexen Petroleum and Ali Sohaiki, Executive Director of Canadian Nexen,  The minister congratulated them on their work in advance of Labor Day, which is on May 1st, and encouraged them to work hard because they are international employees.

Bahah was eager to convey his support for the employees to achieve their tasks and told them they were helping to develop Yemeni society. “Our society needs you because you are the best.” He spoke about the important role the oil companies working in Yemen play in contributing to the development of society. “Canadian Nexen Petroleum has a very successful program, which include about five hundred scholarships in many fields for either master’s degrees or Ph.D’s or others.”

He talked optimistically about the conference of exploring investment opportunities to be held this week, which could jumpstart Yemen’s economy in a dramatic way. The key to this, he said was reform of the investment environment, particularly as regards transparency.  “This time is the time of transparency; I mean that you must account for every dollar you spend. Donors will not give a single dollar until they can be sure where you will spend it,” he said.

Nigeria fears send oil prices up



Oil prices have been sent higher ahead of elections in Nigeria, amid fears that a weak government could make oil supplies more vulnerable to violence. Crude oil in London added 37 cents to $66.31 a barrel while US crude was just under a dollar higher at $62.82. Production of around 500,000 barrels a day of oil in Nigeria - Africa's biggest producer - was cut a year ago after attacks on oil installations. In addition fears over Iran's nuclear programme are adding to market jitters."We are concerned going into this weekend with the Nigerian elections," said Kevin Blemkin, a Man Financial broker. The gap in price between the US and UK oil price is due to a recent glut of oil in the US - the world's largest consumer - but analysts say the UK price is more indicative of wider trends.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6577547.stm

Peak Oil Will Be Reached Sometime Between Next Year & 2018



Oddly enough, FOX News reporting: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,266764,00.html

Spring is in full swing and my bike hasn't been tuned up yet.   It's been neglected too long.  I am sure it is going to be well used in the coming months, however.